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Aug 22, 2023

Hidden Gems Primed to Be the Steals of 2023 MLB Trade Market

The Shohei Ohtani trade that had everyone talking for a hot minute is officially off the table and, alas, other star targets could also stay put when Major League Baseball's trade deadline passes on

The Shohei Ohtani trade that had everyone talking for a hot minute is officially off the table and, alas, other star targets could also stay put when Major League Baseball's trade deadline passes on Tuesday.

Not to worry, though. There's plenty of value to be found in some of the market's lesser-known trade candidates.

If you want to get to know these guys, you've come to the right place. We have profiles on eight players (divided conveniently between four pitchers and four hitters) whose names won't move the needle if they are traded, but who could nonetheless be significant contributors down the stretch of 2023 and potentially beyond.

We'll start with the pitchers and go in alphabetical order.

Age: 28

2023 Stats: 12 GS, 71.0 IP, 55 H (5 HR), 54 K, 20 BB, 2.54 ERA

Contract Status: Under club control through 2025

Remember when the rumor mill was abuzz with whispers about Shane Bieber? Fun times, but they only lasted until the Guardians put him on the IL with elbow inflammation.

Yet if the Guardians are amenable to swapping one of their surplus arms for a much-needed bat—basically the inverse of their Amed Rosario-for-Noah Syndergaard swap—they still have Aaron Civale.

The right-hander's five seasons have been a roller coaster of ups and downs with both his performance and his health. Even this year, he missed close to two months with an obliqe strain.

In 10 starts since returning, however, Civale has been sensational in racking up a 2.47 ERA over 58.1 innings. One metric rates him as one of the best command artists in MLB, while another gives him an above average score for his stuff.

Given all this and his two additional years of arbitration eligibility after 2023, Civale won't come cheap if he comes at all. All the same, any team that can get him would be getting a quality mid-rotation arm.

Age: 31

2023 Stats: 42 G, 24 GF, 44.0 IP, 39 H (6 HR), 42 K, 14 BB, 3.07 ERA

Contract Status: Under club control through 2025

The Nationals are one of the more obvious sellers out there, with wares that include rental third baseman Jeimer Candelario and another hitter we'll be talking about later.

For now, let's give Kyle Finnegan his due credit.

He has, after all, been a consistently above average reliever since he first set foot in Washington in 2018. And with a fastball that sits at 97.3 mph and climbs as high as 100 mph, he mostly fits the profile of a late-inning type.

Kyle Finnegan, 99mph ⛽️⛽️⛽️ <a href="https://t.co/SscNVBRtr0">pic.twitter.com/SscNVBRtr0</a>

Where he falls short is in how he doesn't strike out many batters despite his live arm, but that hasn't stopped him from having the hot hand of late. He's put up a 1.22 ERA over 19 appearances since June 2, a span in which he's notably been more willing to trust a splitter that's easily his best swing-and-miss pitch.

Were Finnegan to keep this up for a contender, he could prove to be an invaluable piece for a playoff-bound bullpen.

Age: 26

2023 Stats: 45 G, 6 GF, 52.0 IP, 37 H (4 HR), 61 K, 14 BB, 3.63 ERA

Contract Status: Under club control through 2027

Now that Aroldis Chapman is out of the picture by way of a trade with the Texas Rangers, the next-best trade chip in the Royals bullpen is a guy who had a 7.39 ERA in 2022.

That's Carlos Hernández, and it must be granted that even his improvement to a 3.63 ERA this year doesn't do him justice.

The real improvement is in how much the righty's stuff has changed. His average fastball has gone from 96.8 mph to 99.0 mph, marking one of the biggest year-to-year leaps of any pitcher. His strikeouts have jumped accordingly from 5.6 to 10.6 per nine innings.

Carlos Hernández 101mph ⛽️ <a href="https://t.co/XBkfyx3zF6">pic.twitter.com/XBkfyx3zF6</a>

And like Finnegan, Hernández is hot. Since June 18, all but two of his 16 appearances have been scoreless.

Hernández's youth and remaining club control make it fair to wonder if the Royals even want to trade him. But if they make the reasonable conclusion amid their 31-75 season that they still have rebuilding to do, they'd be wise to cash him in while his value is at its peak.

Age: 31

2023 Stats: 45 G, 12 GF, 46.0 IP, 44 H (4 HR), 61 K, 22 BB, 3.72 ERA

Contract Status: Under club control through 2026

The Cubs remain the only team in the National League Central with a positive run differential, and now they're hot by way of a six-game win streak. As such, there's logic in them not selling at the deadline.

But if they do, Marcus Stroman and Cody Bellinger won't be their only compelling trade chips. They'll also have Julian Merryweather.

This might sound like a threat for anyone joining us straight from April 2, when Merryweather made his Cubs debut and promptly coughed up five runs while recording only two outs. His ERA immediately jumped to 67.50.

Mercifully, it's come down quite a bit since then as Merryweather has pitched to a 2.78 ERA over 44 games. And his stuff? It's legit. Maybe even the best of any Cubs pitcher, which is certainly reflected by his team-leading whiff rate.

The Cubs could always keep Merryweather around, but his checkered history of injuries and ineffectiveness gives them incentive not to risk it. For interested buyers, the potential near-term rewards are worth it.

Age: 29

2023 Stats: 80 G, 303 PA, 13 HR, 4 SB, .236 AVG, .300 OBP, .417 SLG

Contract Status: Year 6 of 6-Year, $26 Million Deal, with Options for 2024 and 2025

Even if nothing comes of the seismic Nolan Arenado rumor that popped up on Thursday, there's the Cardinals are nonetheless open for business with plenty to offer.

For instance, a pretty good shortstop who could potentially become even better: Paul DeJong.

His current "pretty good" status is clearest with regard to his defense. He's tied for fifth among shortstops with Javier Báez in Outs Above Average.

As has consistently been the case over the last four seasons, it's DeJung's offense that's the big question mark. And yet, a closer look at his splits reveals something interesting:

Per both his OPS and his xSLG—that being his expected slugging percentage—DeJong has been more comfortable in the box away from Busch Stadium. Whatever the exact explanation, it's a solid excuse for a shortstop-needy team to take him on and hope he has more to offer than just slick glovework.

Age: 31

2023 Stats: 63 G, 259 PA, 8 HR, 2 SB, .312 AVG, .367 OBP, .502 SLG

Contract Status: Year 5 of 5-Year $52 Million Contract

The Rockies have already made one notable trade, sending righty reliever Pierce Johnson to Atlanta for a couple prospects. It was a good start for a team badly in need of hope for the future.

If it's a question of who should be next, Randal Grichuk is the easy, yet still underrated answer.

He's been in the big leagues for 10 years, so his name isn't an unfamiliar one. Yet he's in the middle of something of a renaissance, one in which he's swapped out his typical power-first approach for one that's allowed him to achieve career highs for average and on-base percentage.

Grichuk gets us on the board! <a href="https://t.co/oyrJ7i3h6N">pic.twitter.com/oyrJ7i3h6N</a>

Of course, there is the Coors Field caveat. But it's dulled a bit in this case by how Grichuk also has career-best marks for average and OBP on the road, which ultimately says something about the value of remaking oneself as a line-drive machine.

Oh, and he can also play all three outfield spots. That's a good guy to have around for pennant push.

Age: 35

2023 Stats: 78 G, 263 PA, 10 HR, 11 SB, .270 AVG, .350 OBP, .474 SLG

Contract Status: Year 1 of 1-Year, $6 Million Contract

The closer we get to the deadline, the more firmly everyone's eyes are going to be glued to the Mets. David Robertson and Max Scherzer are already out the door, and Justin Verlander may be next.

If they only end up trading Tommy Pham, don't be disappointed.

The veteran has spent his decade in the majors as a mostly productive, occasionally supernova hitter. He was trafficking in the latter as recently as the span between May 28 and July 2, when he hit .378 with six home runs over 28 games.

Pham Bam 💥 <a href="https://t.co/zXEWps4QIw">pic.twitter.com/zXEWps4QIw</a>

Pham has cooled off since then, going just 8-for-47 with one long ball over 15 games. It's some comfort, though, that he still has the peripherals of a supernova hitter, including average exit velocity in the 94th percentile.

Though Pham is mostly a left fielder, he can moonlight in center field in a pinch. He's a good candidate to be what Adam Duvall was for the Atlanta club that won it all in 2021, perhaps even more so than the actual Adam Duvall.

Age: 27

2023 Stats: 103 G, 450 PA, 16 HR, 12 SB, .286 AVG, .333 OBP, .474 SLG

Contract Status: Under club control through 2025

As to that one Nationals hitter we alluded to earlier, well, here he is.

Thomas has been a productive hitter ever since the Nats first acquired him from the Cardinals for Jon Lester in 2021. In 294 games, he's been 16 percent better than the average hitter while playing a little bit of left, center and right.

Granted, it's been pretty much all right field for Thomas in 2023. But that seems to suit him just fine, especially since he turned a corner after a slow April to hit .294 with all 16 of his home runs after May 1.

If not as an everyday player, a team with an especially deep offense—/sideways glance at the Los Angeles Dodgers—should be eyeing the right-handed-hitting Thomas as a platoon bat. By way of a 1.054 OPS, he's a certified destructor of left-handers.

In any case, there shouldn't be much question about Thomas' availability. He's relatively young and controllable, but not so much that the Nats can count on him to be a key piece of their next contender.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.